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CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India?
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
But one that could foreshadow India's growth story. Can Teleperformance's stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? But it's likely to be a blip for India's growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play. Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50 , are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Findlay Kember, Klarna, ChatGPT, K Krithivasan, Krithivasan, Narendra Modi, It's, Shilan Shah, Goldman Sachs, Vinay Dwivedi, Ashok Gulati, Nomura, League Pickleball, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jerome Powell, Raghuram Rajan, Ashish Jain, CNBC's Ayushi Jindal Organizations: AFP, Getty, India's Tata Consultancy Services, Financial Times, TCS, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, University of Oxford, Capital Economics, Investment, Nomura, Qualcomm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, UPI, India, Commission, Agricultural, United Pickleball Association, Global Sports, PPA, League, Washington Post, White, U.S ., Federal, CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Swedish, Paris, India, Chennai, U.S, Europe, China, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, United States
Hong Kong stocks are back from the dead. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index surged more than 7% in April as the best-performing major index in the world. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has also become more “compelling” relative to the rest of the Asian region after the pullback last year, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. He added that there is a shift in investors’ sentiments as Chinese economic data turned more positive. Innes said global investors are currently “underweight” in Chinese markets, including Hong Kong, because of geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding potential fallout from the upcoming US elections. Stock exchange data showed that southbound investors (meaning investment from mainland China into Hong Kong) have bought nearly $20 billion of Hong Kong-listed stocks in March and the first three weeks of April on a net basis.
Persons: , Kelly Chung, Zhikai Chen, Stephen Innes, David Chao, Nomura, Xiaomei Chen, Angelina Lai, Innes, Kong, BNP Paribus Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hong, Value Partners, BNP, Management, P Global, PMI, Kong's, Reuters, US, People’s Bank of, HK, Locations: China, Hong Kong, United States, Beijing, India, James’s, People’s Bank of China
Optimism in India's growth shows little signs of slowing, but policy continuity will be crucial if it wants to see strong growth in the next five years, Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's chief economist and head of global markets research Asia ex-Japan, said. India's elections are underway and Modi is widely expected to win a strong mandate for a third term in office. That projection is much higher than Nomura's growth outlook for China (3.9%), Singapore (2.5%) and South Korea (1.8%) in the same period. "With China's economy slowing, India is likely to be the fastest growing Asian economy this decade," Nomura said in a recent note. "Irrespective of the election outcome, policy continuity and a focus on macroeconomic stability are important growth underpinnings," the bank's analysts added.
Persons: Rob Subbaraman, Modi, Subbaraman, Nomura Organizations: Modi, CNBC, Bharatiya Janata Party Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's the perfect time for the BOJ's 'slow and patient' approach to monetary policy: NomuraGareth Nicholson of Nomura says the BOJ's "two steps forward, one step back" approach to monetary policy could be positive for the Japanese equity market.
Persons: Nomura Gareth Nicholson, Nomura
Interest rates are currently nestled at a 23-year high after the Fed launched an aggressive rate-hiking campaign two years ago. Inflation is down considerably from a four-decade peak reached in the summer of 2022, but recent inflation reports have shown persistent price pressures in services and housing. First rate cut in the summer? Wall Street already wasn’t betting on a rate cut in May, but some analysts are estimating the first cut could come some time in the summer. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Nomura are estimating a first rate cut in July.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, , ” Quincy Krosby, don’t, hasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Wilson, Fed, Congress, LPL, Atlanta Fed, Goldman, JPMorgan, Nomura, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Locations: Wells Fargo, rebalance
Jack Ma is praising Alibaba. Wall Street is more cautious
  + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Alibaba shares got a boost last week from news founder Jack Ma is pleased with the company's turnaround so far. They cut their price target to $100 a share, down from $105 previously, while maintaining an overweight rating. Eddie Wu became CEO of Alibaba in September, and is also acting head of the cloud business. They cut their price target by $1 to $105 a share and maintained their buy rating. They have a price target of $85, and, in contrast to the many buy ratings, rate the stock equal weight.
Persons: Jack Ma, Joe Tsai, Ma, Alex Yao, Tsai, Nicolai Tangen, We've, Eddie Wu, Trudy Dai, Daniel Zhang, Kenneth Fong, Douyin, Nomura, Doubao, Ernie, Qianwen, monetization, Morgan Stanley, Gary Yu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Arjun Kharpal Organizations: CNBC, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Norges Bank Investment, Alibaba, Commerce, UBS, PDD Holdings, Norges Bank Investment Management Locations: China, U.S, Taobao, BABA
Investors are stepping up bets against a broad collection of stocks as the broader market gets increasingly volatile following another hotter-than-expected March inflation report . Stocks sold off and Treasury yields jumped Wednesday when inflation was shown to be under less control than investors had counted on. Unfortunately, the latest economic numbers suggest no need for the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the interest rate brakes. B. Riley Financial is also seeing large short interest, amounting to almost 76% of its float. Other stocks with high short interest include ImmunityBio and Sunnova Energy.
Persons: Stocks, SunPower, Riley Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Riley, Riley Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Nomura, Sunnova Energy
Pictured here is a real estate project under construction in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China, on April 8, 2024. BEIJING — China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick last week. In other words, as Koo warned last year, China may be entering a "balance sheet recession," similar to what Japan experienced during its economic slump. "For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards," Koo said. Koo and other analysts have pointed out that in China's policy-driven economy, house prices have not fallen as much as expected given declines in other aspects of the property market.
Persons: Huai, Richard Koo, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Koo, " Koo Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Japan Locations: Jiangsu province, China, BEIJING
Stocks ended Monday little changed as another uptick in interest rates kept investors from making big moves ahead of key U.S. inflation data. March's CPI number is also being closely watched to gauge when the central bank will begin to lower interest rates. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The market did finish the week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. The surprising gain in payrolls gave investors hope that a strong economy could continue to support corporate earnings growth, even if it means higher interest rates for longer.
Persons: Stocks, Elon Musk, Dow Jones, Matt Rowe, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Nomura Capital Management Locations: payrolls
The Economic Paradox of the Biden Presidency
  + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The paradox is that there is no guarantee that the jobs boom will keep Biden in the White House beyond November, completely scrambling the adage “It’s the economy, stupid” that wins elections. For 39 straight months, employers have added jobs despite many predictions that the United States was destined for a recession. The latest data released Friday overshot analysts’ expectations by a huge margin, with employers adding 303,000 jobs. That takes the tally over the past 12 months to more than 2.8 million hires — and economists expect the upward course to continue. “We do think there’s still room for growth” into next year, Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura, told DealBook.
Persons: Biden, Port, , Jeremy Schwartz, DealBook Organizations: Labor, Nomura Locations: U.S, White, United States, Ukraine, Gaza, Panama, Red Sea, Port of Baltimore
Decades of trade deficits and a strong dollar created too many "losers" in the U.S. economy who turned to Donald Trump's protectionist policies, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute — and those conditions remain. Trump's "America First" economic policies led his administration to institute a slew of trade tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others, including slapping 25% duties on imported steel and aluminum. These policies have drawn widespread criticism from economists, who argue that tariffs are counterproductive, as they make imported goods more expensive for the average American. "When we studied economics and free trade, in particular, we were taught...that free trade always creates both winners and losers in the same economy, but the gain that winners get is always greater than the loss of the losers, so the society as a whole always gains. So that's why the free trade is good," he noted.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jonathan Diller, Donald Trump's, Richard Koo, Trump, Steve Sedgwick, Koo Organizations: U.S, New York City Police Department, NYPD, Nomura Research Institute, European Union, Republican Locations: New, Rockaway, Queens, Massapequa Park , New York, U.S, China, Mexico
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist explains how the exchange rate and 'Wall Street types' enabled Trump's riseRichard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, explains how free trade and a strong dollar created the conditions for Donald Trump's 2016 election win, and why those issues haven't gone away.
Persons: Richard Koo, Donald Trump's, haven't Organizations: Nomura Research Institute
This could create a "China shock 2.0" that impacts other economies around the world. AdvertisementThis is just one of the industries the world is bracing for in the next phase of the "China shock." What happened in China shock 1.0? How Beijing could be creating China shock 2.0Now, China is targeting three new strategic industries that the rest of the world is also eyeing. What are the US and the rest of the world doing about China shock 2.0?
Persons: , Xi, David H, Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H, Hanson, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Biswas, keener, Janet Yellen, Yellen, it's, Wang Wenbin, Wang, Nomura Organizations: Service, Beijing, OECD, European Union, Department of Energy, Treasury, European Commission, EU, Act, Wall Street, Bloomberg Locations: China, EU, Beijing, Communist China, Georgia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America
"A fundamentally overbuilt real estate industry needs to be addressed — and quickly," he said in the report, which counts Changchun Hua, KKR's chief economist for Greater China, among the co-authors. Real estate and related sectors once accounted for about one fifth or more of China's economy, depending on the breadth of analysts' calculations. Based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan and Spain, China's "housing market correction may be just halfway complete" in terms of its depth, the KKR report said. watch nowWhile KKR's report didn't provide much detail on expectations for specific real estate policy, the authors said more action by Beijing to improve China's real estate sector "could materially shift investor perception." Chinese officials have said the real estate sector remains in a period of adjustment, while Beijing shifts its emphasis toward manufacturing and what it considers "high-quality development."
Persons: Henry H, McVey, " McVey, Hong, Nomura Organizations: West Coast New, Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, KKR, Authorities, Housing Locations: West, Qingdao, East China's Shandong, China, Changchun Hua, Greater China, U.S, Japan, Spain, Beijing, China's
But Japan's economy — the long-unconscious patient — recently started to wiggle its toe. The country's stock market is ripping; the Nikkei recently exceeded the all-time highs it set 34 years ago. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country's experience. Advertisement"This has made Japan attractive for foreign investors, and the stock market has done well," Koo said. Even without a currency war with Beijing, the world is building defenses against another wave of Chinese goods.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, there's, Nomura, Richard Koo, Koo, Shinzo Abe, Japan's, What's, it's, we're, haven't, Xi Jinping, doesn't, Xi, we've, Brasília Organizations: Nikkei, Goldman, Bank of Japan, Corporations, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Peterson Institute, European Union, China Locations: East Asia, China, Japan, Real, Tokyo, Beijing, Brussels, Brasília, American, Washington, Brazil, Turkey
He outlined three recent events that give him cause for concern: Cohere valuation The first is that generative AI company Cohere is reportedly on track to raise funds at a $5 billion valuation. "Another red flag was Microsoft's ability to hire the CEO and 70 staff from the AI start-up Inflection AI," he said. Amazon investment Emphasizing the "FOMO effect" around AI, Windsor noted that even tech giant Amazon isn't immune. Amazon's largest-ever investment will see it continue to pump money into the generative AI start-up, which has a chatbot Claude that competes with OpenAI 's ChatGPT. He added that he already owns chip stock Qualcomm , which is in a "very good position to benefit as generative AI starts to be implemented at the edge."
Persons: Richard Windsor, Cohere, Windsor, Martin Kon, Claude, OpenAI, Stocks, , Kate Rooney Organizations: Radio Free Mobile, Mar, CNBC, Nvidia, Google, Windsor, Nomura Securities, Microsoft, Qualcomm Locations: Amazon's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura: there is 'high chance' for the Japanese government to intervene if dollar-yen surpasses 152Yujiro Goto of Nomura discusses the change in rhetoric during Japan's three finance parties meeting, and possibility for intervention as the yen continues to weaken against the dollar.
Persons: Goto, Nomura Organizations: Email Nomura
In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
A cat snuck into a factory in Fukuyama, Japan, and fell into a toxic vat before escaping. AdvertisementOfficials in Fukuyama, Japan, put the city on alert after a cat snuck into a metal plating factory and fell into a toxic vat before then escaping. The factory, Nomura Plating, now plans to ramp up security measures to prevent animals from causing problems in the future. AdvertisementA spokesperson told AFP that it immediately alerted police, city officials, and neighboring buildings. In turn, the city's environmental division warned residents of the potential health risks, urging them to keep their distance if they spotted the toxic cat.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Nomura, Asahi Shimbun, UK Health Security Agency, Agence France, Press, Business, AFP, Agency, Toxic Substances, Japan's Nippon TV Locations: Fukuyama, Japan
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
Tokyo CNN —A city in Japan is on high alert for a cat that fell into a tank of hazardous chemicals before disappearing into the night. A trail of pawprints discovered by a worker on Monday led to a 3-meter-deep vat of hexavalent chromium, a cancer-causing chemical that can induce rashes and inflammation if touched or inhaled, officials said. Akihiro Kobayashi, manager of the Nomura Mekki Fukuyama factory, said a sheet covering the chemical vat was found partially torn when employees returned to work after the weekend. Hexavalent chromium, or Chromium-6, is perhaps best known as the carcinogenic chemical featured in the 2000 movie “Erin Brockovich,” starring Julia Roberts. “Workers may be harmed from exposure to hexavalent chromium,” the CDC says on its website.
Persons: Akihiro Kobayashi, Nomura Mekki Fukuyama, Kobayashi, Erin Brockovich, , Julia Roberts Organizations: Tokyo CNN, Fukuyama City, Nomura Mekki, Workers, Factory, US Centers for Disease Control, Prevention, “ Workers Locations: Japan, Fukuyama , Hiroshima prefecture, Fukuyama, California
Vanke’s stock soared in Hong Kong and Shenzhen following the reports of potential new financing. On Monday, Moody’s cut Vanke’s rating to Ba1, which is often referred to as a junk rating. Residential buildings being built by Vanke in Nanjing STR/AFP/Getty ImagesFounded in 1984 in Shenzhen, Vanke is a flagship company in China’s property sector. It was the first listed property company in mainland China, boasting a high-profile IPO in 1991 on the still-nascent Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In 2023, property sales dropped 6.5% from 2022.
Persons: Moody’s, China Vanke, Vanke, Kaven Tsang, Fitch, Wang Shi, Donald Trump, Refinitiv Eikon, Vanke’s, it’s, , Ni, , ” Nomura Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Economic Observer, CNN, Getty, Time, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Metro, National People’s Congress Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Evergrande, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Vanke
Hong Kong CNN —China’s consumer inflation turned positive for the first time in six months, largely supported by the Lunar New Year holiday, when a spending boom pushed up prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% in February from a year earlier, government data showed on Saturday, versus a rise of 0.3% forecast in a Reuters poll. This was the first increase in the inflation rate since August 2023. Last Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang said the government had set this year’s growth target at around 5% and inflation target at 3%. But the key to growth and rising prices will be how Beijing implements its policy to stimulate demand and boost confidence, analysts said.
Persons: , , Zhiwei Zhang, ” Nomura, Price, Li Qiang, Gongsheng, Zheng Shanjie Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Index, , People’s Bank of China, Getty, National, ” Citi Locations: China, Hong Kong, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, Beijing
China's housing minister, Ni Hong, said real-estate developers in serious trouble should be bankrupted and restructured. Analysts suggest Beijing's priority is to ensure delivery of property projects, not to save developers. AdvertisementChina's housing minister said Beijing will not be bailing out the country's distressed property developers. China's real-estate debt crisis has already taken down property giant Evergrande, which is currently undergoing liquidation. "We view the tone on the property sector set at the 'Two Sessions' as negative," they added, referring to China's parliamentary sessions.
Persons: Ni Hong, , Xi, Li Qiang's, Ni, Jizhou Dong, Riley Jin Organizations: Service, Authorities, Nomura Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong
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